How many points do Rotherham probably need from their final 10 games to secure their place in the play-offs?

Rotherham’s brilliant 14-game unbeaten run propelled them from mid-table to the top six, raising the possibility of an instant return to the Championship.

But with 10 games to go, how many more points are they likely to need to be sure of a play-off place?

Historically over the last 20 years, 74.6 is the average number of points of teams finishing in sixth in the third tier – the final play-off spot.

 

With the Millers currently on 62, that means if they accrue another 12 points from their final 10 games that should be enough to do the job.

If Paul Warne’s men can reproduce their points per game ratio of their first 36 matches (1.72) in their remaining games then they will be home and dry with some time to spare.

Picking up another 17 points between now and the end of the campaign would leave them on 79 and make them a statistical anomaly if they were overtaken by three other sides.

 

Tough run-in

So four wins. Or three wins and three draws. That ought to be enough.

But where are they going to get those points from?

Warne’s side are hampered by the fact that their run-in – on paper – is the second hardest of anyone currently in the top six.

The average PPG of sides they still have to play is 1.41, with only Peterborough’s (1.46) deemed more difficult.

It is worth pointing out that, particularly with Rotherham, the standard of opposition tends to go out of the window completely, evidenced by a 100 per cent record against promotion candidates Portsmouth, Scunthorpe, Bradford and  Shrewsbury and then recent back-to-back defeats against sides in the bottom four.

(via soccerstats.com)

That said, they do have testing opposition, with five of their games against sides currently in the top nine.

They host Peterborough and Bristol Rovers, while having to visit Wigan, Plymouth and Charlton.

They visit relegation threatened Northampton on Saturday, have long trips to Southend and Gillingham while also hosting west coast duo Fleetwood and Blackpool.

 

 

 

 

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