Where does history say Rotherham will finish in League One next season?

Rotherham will just miss out on the play-offs next season if the last 20 years of historical league positions of relegated teams is anything to go by.

The average third-tier finishing position of clubs who dropped from the second tier the previous season since 1996-97 is seventh.

That disregards all other factors such as the size of the club and financial issues – either good or bad – and is based solely on league positions.

Thirteen teams have bounced back at the first attempt, five as champions, though six have gone on to suffer successive relegations.


History is not quite as kind for teams who finished 24th, though.

Only three of the teams who were bottom of the pile bounced straight back, with four going straight through to the fourth tier. The average final league position is 14th.

2017-18 will be Rotherham’s 28th in the third tier since its nationalisation from Division Three North and South in 1958.

They have been promoted out of it on three occasions, in 1980-81, 2000-01 and 2013-14, but relegated five times, most recently 2006-07.

The Millers’ average league position in the third tier is 14th.

Teams promoted in first season after relegation since 1996-97

Grimsby (97-98), Manchester City (98-99), Walsall (00-01), Crewe (02-03), Brighton (03-04), Leicester (08-09), Scunthorpe (08-09), Norwich (09-10), Peterborough (10-11), Doncaster (12-13), Wolves (13-14), Wigan (15-16), Bolton (16-17).

Teams relegated in first season after relegation since 1996-97

Southend (97-98), Grimsby (03-04), Luton (07-08), Plymouth (10-11), Yeovil (13-14), Blackpool (15-16)





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